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Short Sales Success in Southern Oregon

I have been tracking for close to a year the properties that are listed as short sales in Jackson county.

Short sales for those who don’t know are properties that are for sale that the proceeds of the sale if the seller gets market value are less than what the seller owes on the property.

I was working on short sales for a period of time last year, but came to the conclusion that they were not a very good way for the average buyer to get into a house. While the deals may seem good, one doesn’t really know if the bank will accept the asking price. There is a joke among Realtors that they are not really short sales, but they should be called long sales.

By the time you know if the bank will accept the short, you can have waited for 2 months or even more. One can be in line to buy a  house for months, and have the bank foreclose on it without even responding to the offers.Pie chart of Short Sale Success

So I was interested to track what the success rate was for properties that were listed as short sales, and how the asking price to selling price was affected. Short sale list to sales price graphOf the 379 properties I tracked, roughly 14% of them successfully closed. 44% of them were foreclosed on or came off the market for some other reason.

The average sales to list price was in line with our valley in the high ninety percentile.

So if you are looking to buy a short sale, you should know that the success rates are low…and it doesn’t pay to fall in love with a house, because who knows if you can actually buy it. And chances are high that it will become bank owned eventually, and then is the best time to try to get a bargain. At least once the bank actually owns the property, you can get a timely response.

Jackson County Statistics

Days On Market and List to Sales Price RatiosThese are the statistics of houses that have sold in the last month in Jackson County.

If you note, 30% of houses still sell within the first 30 days of being listed….and 68% sell in the first 120 days.

This goes to show the importance of initial pricing.

Of the homes that did sell, Jackson county sellers and buyers on average agree on a price within 95% of the asking price.

Homes that are overprice from the start usually don’t get offers, and homes that do get offers of substantially lower than asking price don’t usually get accepted.

For more detailed statistics about specific types of property, or specific areas, contact me.

Ashland and Medford Oregon Real Estate Stastics show the Bottom of the Market Is Now

Okay, that headline was just meant to get you into the blog to read it. It is not really possible to know when the bottom of the market is, until 6 months after it has come and gone.

 

I will try to figure out a better way to insert graphs into my blog. However, if you follow the link below, it shows the 2 year trend of housing inventory in Ashland.

ashland-market-supply

We are down considerably in inventory from the high of July and August of 2007. This is a good sign that the market locally has stablized.

It looks like there have been close to 18 months where the inventory is less than it was in the previous year. I believe as the confidence grows in the economy as a whole, and the housing relief that are being put into place by the government, that Ashland will have a healthy, stable market that many in the valley and Oregon will still consider to be overpriced.

 Medford is even more dramatic when you look at the graph. I really shows that last year was when the best selection of homes to buy was.

Medford Oregon Residential Supply of Homes 2 year graph (note, I figured out how to give this a better name, and cannot figure out how to edit the name of the Ashland chart)

Now I will not stake my reputation on it, because this really is crystal ball stuff. But I do want it on the record that I believe that this October/November/December will be the “bottom” of the market. And as I have said before…we really won’t know when the bottom is, until 6 months after it has gone.

So someone could keep me honest, and next June have me run the stats to see if that prediction is true.

 

 

First Time Home Buyers are loved by cool Uncle Adam

I have been looking at the prices of homes in the local market and am seeing the opportunity to get first time home buyers into homes. Adam Bogle in ShadesThere are loan programs out there still that help first time buyers get loans. FHA has a good loan that requires only 3% down. There is a Rural Development loan program that will loan 100% of the purchase price. And conventional financing is still a good option for people who have managed to save some money, get gifts, or inheritances.

I have reposted the article that I just read about the increasing percentage of homes that are being sold to first time buyers.

I love working with first time buyers. It really allows me to educate and guide people through a process that they have not yet seen. There is a lot more work involved with a first time buyer, but I have become personal friends with everyone I have ever helped as a first time buyer.

Buying one’s first home is kind of like having a child in a way, and I get to be the cool Uncle.

 

Quoted from http://www.crs.com/Community?comments=901:

CRS :: MemberConnect


Sales To First-Time Homebuyers Rise: NAR
First-time homebuyers are making up a larger share of the buying market due to low home prices, abundant supply and affordable interest rates, according to new research by NAR. The 2008 National Association of REALTORS® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers finds that the number of first-time home buyers rose to 41 percent this year, up from 39 percent in 2007, and 36 percent in 2006.

“Although modest, this is a meaningful gain for the 12-month period ending at the close of June, and more recent independent data show a stronger uptrend in first-time buyers who are helping to reduce excess inventory,” says NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.

The study shows the median age of first-time buyers was 30, down from 31 in 2007, and the median income was $60,600. The typical first-time home buyer purchased a home for $165,000 and plans to stay in it for 10 years, up from seven years in 2007.

The median age of home sellers was 47, and the median income was $91,000. Three-fourths were married couples who had lived in their homes for six years and were moving a median distance of 19 miles. Their home was on the market an average of eight weeks.

Eighty-one percent of home buyers and sellers used a real estate agent. Nine out of 10 would definitely or probably reuse their agent or recommend them to others. These results are consistent with 2007 findings. Mon, Nov 10, 2008

Statistics for Jackson County

Here is the chart that will be published in the paper this week.

May through June Statistics

It is more of the same. As has been noted all year with the statisics, there has been a sharp drop in the number of houses being sold this year as opposed to last year.

 I know to some people, when I start talking about statistics, they see charts in their mind that resemble this. And I too have no idea whatsoever what this graph means. I could say this is the cycle of buyers and sellers in the real esate market, The red line is buyer, the blue line is sellers, and x represents time and Y represents units.

But it isn’t. This is some random picture from some math class at some university.

All a clever disguise so you don’t look at the real statistics.

Kidding….

What I have been saying for years now, since the pace of sellers started outpacing the pace of buyers is…..

To make the market hit a more level spot, the collective mindset needs to be….

If you am trying to sell, but don’t have to….stop trying.

If you want to buy, and you are waiting, quit waiting.

It is all supply and demand. And there is still just too much supply.

The best place to find houses to buy is the internet. Keep checking my website for some new advances in the search capabilities. You can search MLS listings in Ashland, or Medford currently. I will soon have a new interface though that will be much more pleasing to the eye, and user friendly.

Preparing for Radio

Jefferson_exchangeOne of my roles in real estate in the Rogue Valley is I am a member of the Public Relations committee for the local association of Realtors®.

So today I am preparing for an interview on the Jefferson Exchange. Part of the responsibility of being a member of the PR crew is to stay up to date on issues, statistics, and what is being said in the media.

It is remarkable to me what the power of the media is in how they choose to report stories. The difference between saying “foreclosures doubled in the last year”, and “Oregon still among the lowest states for foreclosure in the country”, and “999 or every 1000 homeowners are not in foreclosure”, and “of the 10,000 homes in Ashland, only 5 are bank owned”. Those all tell different stories. But inevitably, the day after any article about real estate in Ashland, or real estate in Medford is published, someone I know in the communtiy will quote it to me.

In fact just today after an article in the Medford Mail Tribune came out whose headline was Glimmer of hope emerges in real estate market, I was stopped in the grocery store by someone telling me that they read inventory was down, and now was a good time to buy.

Anyway, moving on.

Preparing for the Jefferson Exchange. The following is what the topic is set to be as reported on the website.

Home is Where the Heartache Is
Both Eugene and Medford recently made a national top 20 list of overvalued home areas. Real estate market declines and the crisis in the home loan industry have dramatically changed what home buyers and sellers should expect. We talk with Steve Blanton, CEO of the Rogue Valley Association of Realtors, and Realtor Adam Bogle for strategic tips for buying or selling a home.

 

I have read the report listed here, and to me it looks very positive. When the headline reads houses overpriced in Eugene and Medford, it looks bad.  But when you get into the meat of the article, it spells a good story. What is states is that many of the “overvalued” areas in the country have seen an adjustment, and are now seen as “fairly valued”.  Those areas include Southern California, Las Vegas, Florida, and Northern California. Those are the areas that there are a lot of $$$’s that need to be in the economy to make the buyer confidence being reported in the National media higher.

So if you get a chance. Listen to the show, Monday June 30th from 9-10.

Adam “AgentInAKilt” Bogle