Ashland Real Estate Statisics-The lazy edition

Writer’s Block—-I’m going with that as the excuse for my extended absence. To push through the block…I am re-posting a previous blog post, except with all of the numbers current. If you want to see how it compares to the post in September of 2009, CLICK HERE

Ashland Oregon Real Estate Statistics as compiled from Southern Oregon MLS on March 25, 2011.

Currently there are 218 Residential listing in the city of Ashland. 41 Pending sales, and 22 places closed escrow in the last month. That actually is pretty good news as far as I am concerned.  An absorbtion rate (length of time at current sales volume for inventory to run out) of  just about 10 months is really pretty good in the current market. The breakdown goes like this:

  • 32 Listings under $250k with 17 pending sales and 13 closed transactions last month…absorption rate of 2.5 months.
  • 47 Listings between $250k-350k with 12 pending sales and 5 closed transactions last month…absorption rate of 9.4 months.
  • 50 Listings between $350k-500k with 6 pending sales and 3 closed transactions last month…absorption rate of 16.7 months.
  • 37 Listings between $500k-750k with 3 pending sales and 1 closed transactions last month…absorption rate of 15 months.
  • 24 Listings between $750k-1 million with 2 pending sales and zero closed transactions last month…absorption rate of 24 months.
  • 28 Listings over $1 million with 1 pending sale and zero closed transaction last month….absorption rate of 56 months.

(For those who want to do the math with me—I am calculating each pending sale as a half a sale for the purpose of absorption rate on the prices above $500k. Kinda need to do this to avoid having to divide by Zero…which just give me a big ‘ol E on the calculator. For those who don’t know what I am even talking about…ignore the stuff between the parenthesis)


End of Tax Credit

Pending sales are up nationally as the rebound from the “end of the tax credit” has worked its way through. I listen to a podcast from NPR called Planet Money.  They do a great job of making the financial news that we all keep hearing about, whether from the government, banks,  or Wall Street, etc…make sense. I strongly encourage you to  check it out.

But one thing they have had shows on recently is the inherent benefits and flaws from incentives. That incentives seem to be the best way to encourage behavior, but they almost always produce unexpected consequences.

You can see from the below graph the consequence of the tax credit, and you can make your own determination if it was worth the cost.

On a local note, our pending sales in Jackson County are just about where they were at this time last year.

An analysis of the effect of the home buyer tax credit

My last newsletter asked the question of what effect did the home buyer government stimulus money have?

My answer was I thought that the short term impact was huge. But I was really curious about what the long term impact was going to be.

And I concluded last time we’re really just in a wait and see mode to fully assess the impact.

And now we have waited…and now we can see. From the graphs, I would say that the tax credit worked, sort of. There is a definite bubble of activity that happened in April, but it was followed by a depression in July. And now, most indicators are pointing to being roughly the same as last year.

Therefore, what I thought might happen did appear to come true. People who were thinking of buying rushed their decisions, and bought early. Which did reduce inventory temporarily, but the after effect lull caused that figure to return.

I think the benefit of the credit, and a reason to do something similar again was to give 1st time buyers some cash to make repairs that are needed on many of the foreclosed homes that are dominating the market at the moment. But I could just as easily argue that the effect of that is probably not worth the cost of the entire program.

A different program that targeted foreclosed homes, and provided extra money to make them livable would be more likely to help. There are loan programs that are designed to do this, such as the FHA 203k loan, but the regulation and requirements for this particular loan can be a challenge to qualify for. I guess what I would like to see is a more streamlined method to borrow home improvement/repair money and incentives to do so. Especially for houses that will be primary residences.

Sales price to original list price at one year high

One of the statistics I track it what the sales price is in comparison to the original list price. This is different than sales price in comparison to final list price.

What one will note in Rogue Valley Real Estate is that the statistics for sales price to the last listed price has stayed pretty steady at around 96-98% of the sales price. That is more a psychological factor of the local market. It takes the seller coming to the conclusion to drop the listing price first, not them to look at low offers.

An example is that a house is listed for $300,000. They get an offer for $255,000 and they turn it down cause it is just too low (85% of list price). Months pass by, and they drop the house to $280,000 and then more months pass and they drop the price to $260,000. Now they get an offer for $255,000 and take it. The sales price to list price is 98%, but the sales price to original list price is 85%.

So there has been an uptick in this figure from it’s low in January of 86.5%, to May’s figure of 92%. What does this mean to me? Well, one theory I have is that seller’s are becoming more aware of the state of the market and are pricing to the market closer from the start. The days of looking at the comps, and adding 5%, so when the offer came in a little low you still made what the neighbors did, or more, are so 2006. Now, original pricing needs to be at where the comps are…not higher. And

I believe more seller’s and Realtors are getting that.

If you know someone who might need an honest appraisal of value of their property in Ashland or in the Medford area, I can provide an accurate price range, without over-inflating the price to try to make someone happy.

Oh, wait….I bet you all thought my job was to make you happy, right? I guess that is my bad..I think my job is to tell the truth. I leave the happiness up to you. 🙂 When those two coincide, that ‘s the best. That’s when my job is easy.

Current Foreclosure and Short Sale Stats for Jackson County Oregon

According to the last few months of statistics, the success rate for short sales vs. REOs goes like this:

There are 310 properties currently listed as short sales in Jackson County….in the last 3 months there have been 41 successful closes on short sale properties for a median sales price of $164,900. (An average of 14 properties a month…with an absorption rate of 22 months)

There are 178 properties currently listed as bank owned in Jackson County…in the last 3 months there have been 153 successful closes on bank owned properties for a median sales price of $143,000. (An average of 51 properties a month…with an absorption rate of 3.5 months)

If you would like more information on Ashland Oregon Real Estate, or real estate in Jackson County, Oregon, drop me a line, or visit my website

Zillow and Jackson County Real Estate

I am just a little amused by Zillow at the moment. I just watched a tutorial video about the accuracy of the Zestimate, and found that they keep track of how accurate they are on a state by state, and county by county basis.
So obviously I go to see how Jackson County Oregon rates…and wow…Zillow gives itself 3 stars (out of 4). Pretty good, huh?
So trying to figure out how good they are, I look at the numbers.
Of the houses that have sold that had “Zestimates”, 21% of them they were within 5% of the sales price.
An additional 22% were within 10% of the sales price.
Then an additional 22% were within 20% of the sales price.
That means 35% of the houses they were MORE than 20% off on.

So if you have a house they say is worth $400,000, there is a 35% chance that is worth less than $320,000.

That is not that accurate…

Seller’s Market under $200k—but not over

I’ve been looking at the added sales volume we have had in the Rogue Valley lately, and hearing stories (and experiencing) multiple offer situations. It has been feeling like a seller’s market in many ways. However, it all seems to be in the lower price range. So I just ran a few numbers.

For the record…the numbers are generate from sales reported to Southern Oregon MLS, and are in town properties for sale in Medford, Talent, Phoenix, Ashland and Jacksonville, with reported sales in the last 3 months.

A quick refresher…I am going to be talking about absorbsion rate. That is the rate of current sales divided into current inventory…or how many months it would take to sell all of the available homes if no other homes were listed.

So the numbers go something like this:

  • Under $200k, there are currently 332 properties available, and an average of 59 sales a month. So there are 5.5 months of supply.
  • Between $200k and $300k there are currently 326 properties available and an average of 32 sales a month. So there are 10 months of supply.
  • Between $300k and $500k there are currently 294 properties available and an average of 20 sales a month. So there are 15 months of supply.
  • Between $500k and $800k there are currently 124 properties available and an average of 3 sales a month. So there are 41 months of supply.
  • Over $800k there are currently 52 properties available and an average of 1 sale a month. So there are 52 months of supply.

A six month supply is considered a balance market….so there is a balanced market at under $200k….but in all other price ranges, it is still a buyer’s market.

How does one account for this? I think the first time home buyers and investors are thinking now is the time to buy. The $8000 tax credit appears to be working. What we are missing is the buyers that are moving up…or the buyers that are moving in from other locations.

May Stats Are Here

With every set of statisics I run or receive there is always good news….and there is always some bad news. That is the nature of real estate. What is good for sellers, is not necessarily good for buyers…and vice versa.

That being said…it appears that we are approaching a point in the market where the two may be getting close to meeting…where there is a balance in the market, and neither the seller, nor the buyer has the convincing upper hand. That point is if we hit a point where there is about 6 months of housing supply at the current rate of sales and listings.

We are getting there. It looks right now like there may be about a 8 month supply (down from 14).

  • Sales by volume are up by 30% over this time last year (county wide)
  • Sales by volume in Ashland are up 35%
  • Median prices are down across the region to appoximately 2004 prices
  • Listing volume is down 27% from this time last year
  • Listing volume in Ashland is down 35%
  • REO/Short sales account for 17% of all listings
  • REO/Short sales account for 47.5% of all sales
  • Last month REO/Short sales accounted for 18% of all listings

The whole chart with all areas should be published tomorrow in the Mail Tribune.

By the numbers–short sales and REO’s

In the last 3 months in Jackson County

  • 384 total sold residential properties
  • 125 sold REO properties
  • 35 sold Short Sale properties
  • Median price of REO/short sale properties is 20% lower than non-duress properties

Total 42% of the sold market is REO/Short sale

In the last 3 months in Ashland

  • 39 total sold residential properties
  • 4 sold REO properties
  • 2 sold Short Sale properties

Total 15% of the Ashland real estate sold market is REO/Short sale

In the last 3 months in East Medford

  • 91 total sold residential properties
  • 27 sold REO properties
  • 7 sold Short Sale properties

Total 37% of the East Medford real estate sold market is REO/Short sale

In the last 3 months in West Medford

  • 60 total sold residential properties
  • 19 sold REO properties
  • 4 sold Short Sale properties

Total 38% of the West Medford real estate sold market is REO/Short sale

In the last 3 months in Central Point

  • 65 total sold residential properties
  • 28 sold REO properties
  • 11 sold Short Sale properties

Total 60% of the Central Point real estate sold market is REO/Short sale

In the last 3 months in Eagle Point

  • 34 total sold residential properties
  • 15 sold REO properties
  • 3 sold Short Sale properties

Total 53% of the Eagle Point real estate sold market is REO/Short sale

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Jackson County Oregon 11 Year Real Estate Statistics

Jackosn County Oregon Market StatisticsI have finished compiling the stats for 2008, and entered it into the running stats I have for the last 11 years.

As you can see, the volume of properties sold in 2008 was by far the lowest it has been in the last 11 years. A total of 1869 properties sold in 2008, which is down from the 11 year average of 3064 properties a year.

The boom year of 2004 was the height when properties sold. stats-2008-dollar-chart

However if you not on this chart, 2004 was the year that the highest dollar volume of real estate sold.

What I find significant about the chart is the dollar volume of properties affect the overall economy of the county. From Realtors, lenders, title officers, builders, home furnishings, etc…a large part of the local economy works off of real estate.

And to think that dollar volume levels are back to 2000-2001 levels is quite interesting.