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Ashland Real Estate is on Vitamin D

The great thing about Spring is that not only does it mean love is in the air…but the people who are looking to buy houses start getting the springtime bug.

All Realtors know, and can feel the added buzz that comes with sunny days. Open houses are better attended, the phone rings more, the excitement level is higher.

I have this idea that I think one day may be able to be studied. If there was a way to measure which days houses were shown and mash that with weather data, I would really like to have proof that sunny days are actually busier than cloudy days.

The scientist part of me wants to see proof of what the feeling side of believes to be true.

Happy March everyone…and here’s to a good spring.

Seller’s Market under $200k—but not over

I’ve been looking at the added sales volume we have had in the Rogue Valley lately, and hearing stories (and experiencing) multiple offer situations. It has been feeling like a seller’s market in many ways. However, it all seems to be in the lower price range. So I just ran a few numbers.

For the record…the numbers are generate from sales reported to Southern Oregon MLS, and are in town properties for sale in Medford, Talent, Phoenix, Ashland and Jacksonville, with reported sales in the last 3 months.

A quick refresher…I am going to be talking about absorbsion rate. That is the rate of current sales divided into current inventory…or how many months it would take to sell all of the available homes if no other homes were listed.

So the numbers go something like this:

  • Under $200k, there are currently 332 properties available, and an average of 59 sales a month. So there are 5.5 months of supply.
  • Between $200k and $300k there are currently 326 properties available and an average of 32 sales a month. So there are 10 months of supply.
  • Between $300k and $500k there are currently 294 properties available and an average of 20 sales a month. So there are 15 months of supply.
  • Between $500k and $800k there are currently 124 properties available and an average of 3 sales a month. So there are 41 months of supply.
  • Over $800k there are currently 52 properties available and an average of 1 sale a month. So there are 52 months of supply.

A six month supply is considered a balance market….so there is a balanced market at under $200k….but in all other price ranges, it is still a buyer’s market.

How does one account for this? I think the first time home buyers and investors are thinking now is the time to buy. The $8000 tax credit appears to be working. What we are missing is the buyers that are moving up…or the buyers that are moving in from other locations.

May Stats Are Here

With every set of statisics I run or receive there is always good news….and there is always some bad news. That is the nature of real estate. What is good for sellers, is not necessarily good for buyers…and vice versa.

That being said…it appears that we are approaching a point in the market where the two may be getting close to meeting…where there is a balance in the market, and neither the seller, nor the buyer has the convincing upper hand. That point is if we hit a point where there is about 6 months of housing supply at the current rate of sales and listings.

We are getting there. It looks right now like there may be about a 8 month supply (down from 14).

  • Sales by volume are up by 30% over this time last year (county wide)
  • Sales by volume in Ashland are up 35%
  • Median prices are down across the region to appoximately 2004 prices
  • Listing volume is down 27% from this time last year
  • Listing volume in Ashland is down 35%
  • REO/Short sales account for 17% of all listings
  • REO/Short sales account for 47.5% of all sales
  • Last month REO/Short sales accounted for 18% of all listings

The whole chart with all areas should be published tomorrow in the Mail Tribune.

By the numbers–short sales and REO’s

In the last 3 months in Jackson County

  • 384 total sold residential properties
  • 125 sold REO properties
  • 35 sold Short Sale properties
  • Median price of REO/short sale properties is 20% lower than non-duress properties

Total 42% of the sold market is REO/Short sale

In the last 3 months in Ashland

  • 39 total sold residential properties
  • 4 sold REO properties
  • 2 sold Short Sale properties

Total 15% of the Ashland real estate sold market is REO/Short sale

In the last 3 months in East Medford

  • 91 total sold residential properties
  • 27 sold REO properties
  • 7 sold Short Sale properties

Total 37% of the East Medford real estate sold market is REO/Short sale

In the last 3 months in West Medford

  • 60 total sold residential properties
  • 19 sold REO properties
  • 4 sold Short Sale properties

Total 38% of the West Medford real estate sold market is REO/Short sale

In the last 3 months in Central Point

  • 65 total sold residential properties
  • 28 sold REO properties
  • 11 sold Short Sale properties

Total 60% of the Central Point real estate sold market is REO/Short sale

In the last 3 months in Eagle Point

  • 34 total sold residential properties
  • 15 sold REO properties
  • 3 sold Short Sale properties

Total 53% of the Eagle Point real estate sold market is REO/Short sale

To search for properties, please visit www.AgentInAKilt.com or www.realestate-southernoregon.com

Ashland and Medford Oregon Real Estate Stastics show the Bottom of the Market Is Now

Okay, that headline was just meant to get you into the blog to read it. It is not really possible to know when the bottom of the market is, until 6 months after it has come and gone.

 

I will try to figure out a better way to insert graphs into my blog. However, if you follow the link below, it shows the 2 year trend of housing inventory in Ashland.

ashland-market-supply

We are down considerably in inventory from the high of July and August of 2007. This is a good sign that the market locally has stablized.

It looks like there have been close to 18 months where the inventory is less than it was in the previous year. I believe as the confidence grows in the economy as a whole, and the housing relief that are being put into place by the government, that Ashland will have a healthy, stable market that many in the valley and Oregon will still consider to be overpriced.

 Medford is even more dramatic when you look at the graph. I really shows that last year was when the best selection of homes to buy was.

Medford Oregon Residential Supply of Homes 2 year graph (note, I figured out how to give this a better name, and cannot figure out how to edit the name of the Ashland chart)

Now I will not stake my reputation on it, because this really is crystal ball stuff. But I do want it on the record that I believe that this October/November/December will be the “bottom” of the market. And as I have said before…we really won’t know when the bottom is, until 6 months after it has gone.

So someone could keep me honest, and next June have me run the stats to see if that prediction is true.

 

 

Now is the time!!!

Well, the election is finally over, and I can concentrate again on real estate. It is a relief to know who the next president is going to be, and be able to focus on what Obama’s policies are going to do to the housing market.

I have been watching this one house in Ashland that has been for sale for over a year. It is now bank owned, and I think this is the time to get in and make an offer on it.

I am not the current listing agent, but I was the agent prior to the foreclosure. So I am familiar with the quality of the house. It is located in a less than perfect spot, but to use as a rental…or as a home that could easily accomodate a family it could be a good deal. It looks bad now, because it was left in less than perfect shape, but the prior owners did take care of it, and most problems appear to be cosmetic.

It is 1600 square feet, and I imagine it could be purchased in the $250,000 range…maybe even lower.

Give me a call if you can think of someone who has the ability to get out there and find a good buy.

Because if I had the money….I would be shopping for houses like crazy!!!!!

New Property Tax Info for Jackson County is Out

 The information in this blog is provided courtesy of Jamie Baker, now of Ticor Title. It is mainly taken from an email that she sent out to Realtors in Ashland. But it is very good information.

 

 

 

2008/2009 Taxes have rolled for Jackson County!

 

(Ashland taxes have gone down!)

 

 

I just wanted to let you know that the 2008/2009 tax values are now available from the County. 

 

You may be surprised to learn that the Ashland taxes actually went down this year.  This is due to the fact that the 07/08 taxes included a bond for the schools.  Most accounts will see a decrease by a couple hundred dollars, but it has to do with the assessed value of the property itself.

 

I know a lot of you may be asking if you will see a decrease in your taxes because the property values are declining.  The answer to that question in a nutshell is “NO”Here’s why:

 

·         When Measure 50 was approved by voters in 1997, a MAV, or Maximum Assessed Value was established for each property.  That value was calculated for each property by subtracting 10% from the property’s 1995-96 Real Market Value (RMV).  Under Measure 50, property tax is based on the lower of either the RMV or the MAV. 

 

·         The MAV increases by 3% each year as long as the Real Market Value of the property is greater that the MAV.  As always, the Real Market Value changes with the real estate market. 

 

·         Since 1997 the real estate market (and Real Market Value) has seen unprecedented growth while the MAV has continued to go up the constitutional 3% per year.  This has caused the MAV to remain much lower than the Real Market Value, ranging from 35% to 65% of the RMV, with the average property’s MAV being 52% lower than the RMV. The Real Market Value would have to drop by 52% before the taxes would be affected. 

 

Per the County’s calculations, the changes in Real Market Value for the 08/09 year are as follows:

 

                        ASHLAND                                                    -11 TO 13%

                        PHOENIX/TALENT                                     -9 TO 12%

                        EAST MEDFORD                                        -18-21%

                        WEST MEDFORD/APPLEGATE             -17 TO 24%

                        CENTRAL POINT/SAMS VALLEY          -17 TO 20%

                        ROGUE RIVER AREA                                -9 TO 14%

                        NORTH COUNTY                                        -7 TO 11%

 

(The information above was shared with us(Ticor Title) by Dan Ross, the County Assessor.)

 

MARK YOUR CALENDAR:

 

TAXES ARE DUE BY NOVEMBER 15TH, BUT THIS YEAR THE 15TH FALLS ON A SATURDAY, SO THE PAYMENT MUST BE IN BY MONDAY, THE 17TH.  If you pay in full by the 17th, you will receive the 3% discount. 

Bigger is not necessarily better

 

I have pasted a piece the article below from the Wall Street Journal about cottages being in vogue.

For many years now I have been touting the charm, and ease of having a little less square footage, and a quaint design. I have been looking for a magazine that focuses on small spaces, and what to do with them, and have yet to find one. And I thought there was a magazine for everything.
My family lives in a small house, built in the late 40’s. It has been a challenge because my wife and I really like to rearrange furniture. We find the best way to thoroughly clean is to start moving stuff around. But with a small house, you are limited that only certain pieces can go on certain walls.

Big Living, small space

Big Living, small space

 

In Ashland, there was a condo project that was completed a number of years ago call Creekside Cottages. They took the idea of cottage living, and made some nice places. There is currently one listed for sale. It is listed as 1204 square feet for $299,000.

Siskiyou Cottage

I would be interested in hearing some thoughts you may have about small spaces…or if anyone knows of a magazine devoted to small houses, please let me know.

Adam

 

Small Homes, Cottages Score Big With Buyers

However, home buyers these days increasingly are interested in smaller homes that consume less energy and encourage interaction among neighbors.

Developers in cities such as Seattle, Boston, and Milwaukee are building cottage developments to meet the rising demand.

Architect Ross Chapin and developer Jim Soules have erected nearly 50 Craftsman-style cottages during the last 10 years in the Seattle area. (Watch Video: Choosing Cottages Over McMansions)

The quirky homes sell for as much as $600,000, despite the fact that they range in size from just 800 square feet to 1,500 square feet.

Chapin uses clever design tricks, such as corner windows and skylights, to give the illusion of more space. He also makes the most of every inch by including crawlspace storage and built-in bookshelves and cubbies.

“These days, we drive to the house, open the garage door, go in,” Indianapolis developer Casey Land told the Wall Street Journal. “But it’s important to get to know your neighbors. I think people miss that.”

Source: Wall Street Journal, Sara Lin (07/18/08)